In 2005, united Shia lists took 128 seats of the 325 available in the general election. This year, however, the lists are split after rivalry over spheres of influence, authority and governmental posts caused the coalition to disintegrate in mid-2007.

In local elections last year, new Shia forces arrived on the scene to replace the unified coalition, the most prominent being the Iraqi National Coalition, headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim (with his son, Ammar, taking over after his father's death), and the State of Law Coalition, led by the Prime Minister, Nouri Al-Maliki.

Hunting for electoral success, the divided Shia parties tried to build trans-sectarian coalitions behind nationalist slogans. On the ground, however, the slogans were not practically implemented, particularly among National Coalition elements. The latter’s attempts to include Sunni and Kurdish entities achieved very limited success. They could only persuade a breakaway section of the Sunni Awakening Movement, a Sunni scholar and a minority Kurdish Shia party to join them.

The coalition’s profile remains clearly Shia, its main members comprising of the Supreme Islamic Council, the Badr Organisation, the Sadr Group, the Dawa Party (Iraq Group), Ahmad Al-Chalabi’s National Congress, the Fadilah Party, led by Sheikh Al-Yaqoubi, the National Reform Group under former Prime Minister, Ibrahim Al-Jafari, the al-Wasat Group, led by Mouafaq Al-Rubayie , and other independent and influential Shia figures.

Compared to the Iraqi National Coalition, the State of Law list has had some success recruiting allies from across the sectarian spectrum. They have focused on Sunni Arab groups, including the leaders of the Awakening Group, who fight al-Qaeda in Western and Northern areas. Around forty small political entities joined the coalition, including two Christian groups and another from the Shabak ethnic group. The al-Maliki-led Dawa Party, remains the central element in the coalition.

At present, the Shia electoral scene is limited to these two major coalitions, although there are other parties that decided to take part in the elections with single lists or in non-sectarian groupings.

Sami Al-Askari, a key candidate in the Al-Maliki Coalition, believes there are ‘fundamental issues’ keeping the two large coalitions apart.

“The State of Law program focuses on a strong central government, and gives the Iraqi governorates special powers,” he says. “It also stresses preventing militias from carrying weapons or having any government role. But certain political parties have their own militias and are endeavoring to extend their sphere of influence into key government positions and demand large-scale powers for the governorates.”

Al-Maliki’s supporters criticise the ‘strategic partnership’ between the National Coalition and the Kurds, and its support for the concept of establishing a Shia Province, in the center and South of the country, along similar lines to the Kurdish region. They also criticise its close links with Iran.

“Al-Maliki considers Iraq’s sovereignty a basic and substantive issue and crucial vis-a-vis his relations with others, while there are electoral lists that place their regional alliances above the country’s sovereignty,” continued al-Askari. “They establish alliances with other parties, like the Kurdistan alliance,” adding that this particular issue is the main dividing line between the two main Shia coalitions.

The political scholar, Abdul Hussein Shaaban, suggested that many of the divergent policies are not the result of ideological differences or strongly contrasting political tendencies.

“Some differences are based only on the nature of power rivalry between the groups, the same things responsible for the disintegration of the Shia house in 2007 and beyond.

Despite the intensified polarisation, there are common denominators and goals that could bring the two sides together. Among them is the desire to amend the constitution and form a majority government instead of a national reconciliation government, something opposed by other political blocs.

In preparation for the elections, the Iraqi National Coalition has promoted a plan which depends upon basic principles, described by its candidates as ‘more nationalistic than sectarian’. The plan is focused on enhancing national unity, amending the Constitution, ending the presence of foreign troops and de-politicising existing government institutions.

The National Coalition and State of Law coalition share the same vision on these points.

“These principles have deep roots vis-à-vis the relationship among the former coalition partners,” said Sheikh Jalaludin Al-Saghir, the National Coalition’s candidate for Kirkuk.

He does not rule out the possibility of an alliance forming after the elections, when the government is being formed.

“There are no big differences in the political discourse of the two coalitions. Our national principles and religious backgrounds have always disregarded our differences and obstacles that may affect the relationship between the two parties.”

Several attempts have been made to unify the coalitions, all, so far at least, ending in failure due to disputes over the division of parliamentary seats between the two sides.

Like al-Saghir, the Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is also optimistic about the possibility of future unity between the Shia lists.

“The door is open for such alliance with the major political blocs, due to the need for this alliance, in addition to the longstanding relationship with these blocs,” he said, adding later that any such alliance would be formed after the elections and that the lists would continue to compete for election separately.

Al-Maliki’s party should gain more seats than the National Coalition, though the results are likely to be close. An opinion poll conducted by the National Media Centre revealed a significant lead for the Prime Minister’s party ahead of Sunday’s elections. The State of Law Coalition enjoyed 29.9% support across the 18 governorates in the country, while the National Coalition achieved only 17.2 %.

Al-Saghir disputes these figures, pointing to the fact that the National Media Centre is government controlled.

“It is not only us [the National Coalition] anticipating victory, but even the US opinion survey agencies predict the National Coalition winning; everyone expects our list to win,” he said.

Regardless of the position of either coalition in the forthcoming elections, neither coalition seems to see the divorce between the two as 'Catholic'. The chance remains to unite the ‘Shia house’ after March 7.